Theoretically Speaking

Smart (and silly) theories for new tactics in courting consumers.

1. The Recency Bias

TikTok is a time machine. Teens “discover” things like cargo pants and Kate Bush as if they’re the first to encounter them. Welcome to the Recency Illusion, where decades-old products, concepts, or personalities suddenly feel novel to a new audience. So, what’s old is new again when a new generation gets ahold of it. Take Stüssy, a brand that dominated the 90s mall scene, recently resurrected from retail purgatory and is now beloved by Gen ZAs. What was once a teen staple is the latest “it” brand—all without Stüssy lifting a finger. Now, let’s talk music for a minute. Stranger Things propelled Kate Bush’s 1985 banger “Running Up That Hill” back into the limelight as if it just dropped on Spotify. What does this all mean? The Recency Illusion is more than mind play. It’s an opportunity for brands to tap into something powerful—intergenerational connection by way of nostalgia. Think of the re-release of historical American Girl characters, where parents and their kids bond over dolls that, in some cases, outdate the internet itself. The sweet spot? Positioning yourself in a way that feels nostalgic to one group but fresh to another. Nostalgia creates an emotional connection (the good stuff), and novelty keeps it feeling relevant. And while using nostalgia as a strategy is nothing new (wink), what people are nostalgic for is constantly updating. 

Curious about what’s driving today’s nostalgia?
Check out our Newstalgia report.

2. The Frequency Illusion

If the Recency Illusion is about rediscovering the old as new, the Frequency Illusion turns that inside out. It’s when something you’ve just noticed suddenly feels like it’s everywhere. Think about the first time you spotted Blank Street Coffee, and now, it seems like there’s one on every corner. Also known as the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon, this perception trick is even more powerful in today’s world of surveillance capitalism, personalized advertising, and algorithm-driven feeds (yes, your phone really is listening). Say the word “cozy” in passing, and before you know it, your social media is serving you Hygge decor, knit sweaters, and enough pumpkin spice to last a lifetime. This is the infrastructure that gives rise to today’s influx of microtrends. Think about the fast rise and fall of the mob wife aesthetic or Brat Girl Summer (we don’t even want to hear this phrase again). The ubiquity of it all makes these moments feel bigger and more impactful than they really are. For businesses, this means something. You can make your brand feel omnipresent without actually being everywhere. It’s not about overwhelming volume; it’s about smart repetition. Create the perfect conditions for limited releases, special drops, or time-sensitive offers to thrive.

…some theories are not scientifically backed… (3.)

Sometimes, the best combinations are not necessarily the “right” combinations. Before the “wrong shoe theory” was popularized, we’d been following the importance of irony in sticky presentations. At the most basic level, juxtaposing a sporty Adidas samba with a DIY-charm bar scratches the femme-tom-boy itch. In the food & bev space, unexpected flavor combos are not new but consistently appeal, and weird brand collabs draw considerable attention (more on this here.) Home & Interiors get the “wrong shoe” treatment with the Japanese art of Ikebana, juxtaposing an orderly home with the natural form of flowers, untethered by restrictive vases. Even Travel & Leisure sees golf get in on the irony, with players opting to run between holes to make the typically leisurely sport move quicker and up the ante on exercise. The takeaway? Merchandise differently and consider the odd combinations.

4. The Dunning-Kruger Effect

If there’s one thing the Information Age and Influencer Era have gifted us, it’s the widespread belief that anyone with Wi-Fi can be an expert. Say hello to the Dunning-Kruger Effect, that fun little cognitive bias where people with minimal knowledge in a field grossly overestimate their abilities. These days, a quick Google search or an influencer’s take is all it takes to make someone feel like they’ve mastered a subject. Cue your friend with 10k followers acting like a wellness guru because they’ve watched a couple of health documentaries. And while there are influencers who know their stuff, those with legitimate expertise are few and far between. Enter the rise of newsfluencers and social media personalities who position themselves as experts on everything from climate change to international politics, regardless of how deep their knowledge actually goes. Because in today’s world, accuracy isn’t what drives trust—relatability and reach do, this fuzzy line between real and perceived expertise is part of a broader shift in trust. The Edelman Trust Barometer shows that faith in traditional institutions like the government and media is falling off a cliff. Instead, consumers are turning to brands, businesses, and—no surprise—their social circles for guidance. This creates a major opening for brands to step in and become trusted voices in the mix. In an age where everyone’s claiming expertise, being a reliable source is your ticket to capturing the trust that many influencers are starting to lose. So, here’s your chance: educate your audience, give them real value, and offer insights that go deeper than surface-level takes.

5. The Plurality Proposition

We’ve entered the age of real-life choose-your-own-reality. Media is experiencing a splintering effect, with endless content available at the viewer's fingertips anytime, anywhere. The days of appointment television, when everyone gathered around the TV for the same primetime show (case in point: the death of late-night TV) is not the great uniter it once was. Now, there are self-curated media diets, with algorithms serving hyper-personalized content, reflecting interests and preferences. Content is individualized, served up on a personal platter of precision. In a sense, shared experiences are disappearing, and people are increasingly living in their own reality or echo chambers. On the one hand, a brand that follows its consumers down these rabbit holes can find great success by catering to specific tastes and subcultures. On the other, we’re seeing a growing nostalgia for shared experiences and broad, all-encompassing messaging. For younger consumers, this ties back to the recency illusion and wanting to believe they’re the first to discover something—even though they’ve never lived in an era of universal, shared media moments. Meanwhile, more seasoned consumers long for the days of a unified experience, when everyone sees the plot twists and outcomes at the same time. Both paths hold power, but the key is knowing which reality your customer is living in—and meeting them there.

…and others are newly hatched, but could mean big business… (6.)

The New Year has new competition. October 1 has been dubbed the prime time to re-evaluate, jump-start self-improvement, purge old habits, and start new ones, essentially hitting reset for the final three months of the year. For many, Fall is already the start of a different kind of new year; Summer is over, school is starting again, and unscheduled days are long gone. However, this theory, popularized on (you guessed it) TikTok, has more to it than just a busy calendar and BTS supplies. As New Year's resolutions get more arbitrary each year, the habits formed 90 days before the start of the new year have an even greater chance of success in the coming year, as they have already been in place for three months. Plus, those unrealized resolutions set nine months ago can be reinvigorated and recharged. Consider this your call to action as a brand to set yourself up as the go-to product, solution, or authority for those looking to up their mindfulness game, refresh their closet, or start taking those Pilates classes they swore they would. There’s no time like the present…to rethink your voice, messaging, and presentation.